Berry Reflects, Jack Selects (1)

Berry Reflects

There is a hole in my diary in the third week of January. The CAP Gemini Tournament in which I took part the past sixteen years has vanished from the calendar. What's left are memories. It was a magnificent tournament to play. I would have loved to win it just once. We came very close three times. In 1988 we lost by a whisker. In 1992 we lost because of a ruling against us. In 1995 margins were so small that one single board made the difference between the first and seventh place. Of course it was a slam:

A K 10
K Q 9 7
3
A K 8 7 6
    
N
    W        O
    
S
Q 9 7 6 5
A 10 6
K 8 5
9 5
WestNorthEastSouth
ZiaWestraRosenbergLeufkens
21dbl34
pas4NTpas5
pas6paspas
paspaspas 
 
(1) weak two in diamonds

Against 6 West led the A and continued with another diamond. How would you plan the play? A possibility is to ruff and continue with AK. If the spades break you can claim. My partner Enri Leufkens was afraid of Jack-fourth in East. He decided to win in hand with the K, discarding the 7 from dummy. His idea was to establish the fifth club for a diamond discard. This plan failed piteously when clubs broke 5-1. With trumps 3-2 and hearts 3-3 every other line of play would have led to 12 tricks. This was the full hand:

W/None A K 10
K Q 9 7
3
A K 8 7 6
J 4 2
J 5 3
A J 10 9 7 4
4
    
N
    W        O
    
S

8 3
8 4 2
Q 6 2
Q J 10 3 2

Q 9 7 6 5
A 10 6
K 8 5
9 5

It has to be said that the clubsplit was very unlucky. If West's singleton is a honour Enri still wins his contract. He can ruff out East's honours and establish North's 6. In an article for the Dutch bridge magazine IMP I analysed the hand. My conclusion was that Enri's plan was not top notch. With trumps 4-1 he needs clubs to be 3-3 (you have to draw four rounds of trumps). And ruffing the diamond does not leave you without resource if spades break 4-1. You can land the contract through a trump coup if East's shape is 4-3-3-3 or 4-4-3-2.

Now it's eight years later and we have Jack to check my findings. What are the chances of success with respect to the following two lines of play?

Jack Selects

After entering the board Jack's first reaction is to throw a club from dummy at trick two. He appraises his success rate at almost 100%! This appraisement becomes understandable when we realize that Jack bases his odds on 'hand generation'. He generates a lot of EW hands to see if he can make the contract with a specific line of play. Placing West with exactly six diamonds Jack thinks he can 'always' make four heart tricks. This is a bit to optimistic though. Watch this lay-out for instance:

W/None A K 10
K Q 9 7
3
A K 8 7 6
J 4 2
5 3
A J 10 9 7 4
J 4
    
N
    W        O
    
S

8 3
J 8 4 2
Q 6 2
Q 10 3 2

Q 9 7 6 5
A 10 6
K 8 5
9 5

Suppose that South wins the second diamond with the King and plays three rounds of trumps. East will throw his last diamond on the third spade and keeps four hearts and four clubs behind dummy. After three rounds of clubs, declarer knows East's shape. However he lacks the communication to finesse the J through East. Jack doesn't think enough tricks ahead!

To get a better view on the problem, we remove the 10 from South. Now Jack chooses to ruff his small diamond. He expects a score of 945 points. The contract will hardly ever go down. Enri´s line of play is slightly less attractive (average score of about 900 points). To make a long story short, my original analyses were acknowledged by Jack. Enri had tough luck, but failed to find the best line.

As a foot-note I'd like to mention that Jack was critical of the A lead by West (Zia Mahmood). Jack preferred the 4. This dooms the contract, provided that West plays a trump after a diamond for King and Ace. Declarer lacks the communication to ruff a diamond in dummy and draw trumps.

Berry Westra